The Head Above The Rampart Gets Shot!

Some time ago (Dec 2016) I wrote a blog article basically asking “Who is Gloucester RFC?”. This was around the time StQ was trying to sell 51% share holding to Mohed Altrad. If you have the time to read it, it may help later in this blog.

All Change at Gloucester?

Now, I’ll be truthful. I’ve tried, but I really cannot stand watching any other sport than Rugby Union. It’s the only game that entertains me. It’s the only one that has me screaming, from the stand or from the armchair. And I’ve spent huge sums of money watching this sport I love……most of it on Gloucester, my beloved Cherry & Whites. So when I write a blog, or a Facebook post; when I take time to consider evidence, stats & facts, it’s because of that love, because of that passion for the sport and for my team. So from this, I hope you’ll understand what I was saying in that blog post.

Part of the work I do on a day to day basis is as an Investigator. I look for evidence and try to make accurate inferences from what I find. One of the biggest challenges of the job is to find sources of accurate information. In today’s social media obsessed world, where everyone has an opinion and Google will happily feed these to you, this has become quite challenging. Also, professional media organisations tend to only release information that is to their advantage.

An example of this might be that a professional reporter, let’s call him Bobby Aisles,  finds himself in ownership of significant news about a local sports team and it’s quite juicy and very informative. He calls the sports team for confirmation and the team says “Yeah, we don’t want that getting out it’s commercially sensitive/will upset the fans”. Bobby says “But it’s all true so why shouldn’t I run it?”, “Well, because if you do we’ll speak to our sponsors and ask them to withdraw advertising in your rag and won’t ever give you access to our ground or stories to run in future which will hit your sales”.

Trust me, this happens, regularly.

So it can be difficult to get a clear and accurate picture of what might be happening and where responsibility lies if things do not seem particularly rosy in any investigation. This is particularly true where several individuals might have a lot to lose.

There are also challenges where an investigator may be told something in strictest confidence. To break such a confidence may mean losing a valuable source of information forever.

Further, there are two measures for evidence and theory formulation. Does what you have point to something being “Irrefutably beyond all reasonable doubt” or is it “On the balance of probabilities”. Both of these are legal measures; one in criminal court and one in civil. But if the information is based on the 2nd measure then multiple sources need to add confirmation.

Also, it is extremely difficult not to weigh information from a personal objective or to ignore evidence based on pre-conceived prejudices. “I don’t like him so I’m just going to look for the evidence that supports my theory!” To be subjective rather than objective and have the ability to change a view based on evidence.  Especially where friendships are involved. An example here would be that I believed that Todd Gleave was brought to Gloucester RFC on the spurious grounds of nepotism. Having watched him develop I now think he has developed into a reasonable Hooker. Not a starter, maybe, but a cost effective bench man.

I’m often criticised for being negative. For being critical of where Gloucester RFC are and where they seem to be going and the background noise. That’s fine, the head above the rampart gets shot. Of course, I could avoid being criticised by keeping quiet, by not spending hours investigating what’s going on. But as I hope I’ve made clear in my earlier comments and the previous blog, this club is ours. Not StQ’s, the players, the coaches or anyone else. Without us it would not be. So when things are not right, when we hear things and discover things it is right that we ask questions. This is not mutiny, it is the very opposite. It shows our love for our club. And it is the fans that can bring the pressure to bear that may see things improve.

Now, one of the things I love about the forums is that there are so many informed views and intelligent opinions that I sometimes find myself changing my opinion, so, yes, I welcome that. What is less welcome is almost mindless, “Let’s get behind the team!”, (for me the team is every one, the coaches, owners and players). And at the moment there really is something wrong at the heart of the team. You can slate me, you can denigrate me but Gloucester has the worse overall stats for any team in the Prem. That’s not speculation, that’s fact. (these stats prior to round 12).

And yet I believe overall we have one of the best teams we’ve had in a generation….. 7 current internationals (ish).

So, after hints, guesses, suggestions……I suppose it’s time to really ask the hard questions. It’s time to press GRFC, because the Press ain’t going to press them. So let’s put it out there and ask the club to answer these questions.

1. Were GRFC over the salary cap and did David Humphreys put players on loan without their knowledge or consent to correct this?
2. Was Kriel released to correct this?
3. Please explain the Marshall signing debacle (JA said at the Montpelier Q&A that Tom’s wife wasn’t settled. After re-signing Tom made it clear she and he were settled)?
4. Is there any money in the cap for new signings?
5. Gloucester have won the lowest %age of games in all comps of Prem teams. What does GRFC think is the cause of this?
6. What is the plan to correct this?

And finally, a question I put to Lance Bradley on Twitter that remains unanswered……What are GRFC doing with the £350k from Premier Rugby? If you wonder why I ask this question I think the answer would tell us a great deal about the current ownership of the “company”. Exeter Chiefs gave their share straight to their foundation. Where did GRFC’s share go? The main reason for my asking is that the money could go a long way to helping struggling local clubs who have been the ones developing talent to feed into the academy. GRFC have benefited hugely from these local clubs and perhaps now, with this “free” money, they could put a little something back.

 

 

Back to the Stats!

As I’ve said frequently, you can pretty much make stats say anything you want them too…..So let’s give that a try.

Only 3 teams have scored more tries than us this season in the Prem. The two leaders, Chiefs & Saints and, of course, Sarries. That’s pretty great. The next most miserly Defence in the league is Sharks who have leaked 18 compared to our parsimonious 14. That’s superb. So why are we not top of the table?

I think it can be summed up in one word. Penalties. In the 10 Prem games we’ve played we’ve given away 108 penalties against 91 in our favour. For the sake of this blog I’m going to concentrate on converted kicks rather than scores from other methods.  In the 10 games we have had 34 successful penalties kicked against us. In the 6 games we have lost we have had 22 successful kicks against us. I need not remind you that 22 kicks is 66 points. Those 6 loses had a combined score margin against us of 52 points. While those are average scores in reality the only game we would have still lost without that number of penalties against us would be the Bears game which we would have lost by 3 instead of 18. The Sarries game would have been a draw.

Tigers, Away, We gifted them 9 penalty points and lost by 3

Quins, Away, We gifted them 9 penalty points and lost by 4

Saints, Away, We gifted them 12 penalty points and lost by 7

Chiefs, Home, We gifted them 12 penalty points and lost by 11

Win these four games and we would be 5 points ahead of Chiefs. Narrow margins.

So where is it going tits up?

For a start we’re playing a go forward brand of rugby. It’s a brand that works well in the Southern Hemisphere and in dry conditions. But we don’t seem to have a Plan B for when conditions are not favourable to that brand and other teams that are still playing Northern Hemisphere, attritional rugby are forcing us back, especially as our front row is just not good enough at the moment. So we are spending huge amounts of time going back. And when you are going back the Ref will ping you.

Further, we are suffering with very little team cohesion. This is where teams know each other inside out, upside down and back to front and work together as single unit with leaders on and off the field. The team live the game plan. Top teams for Team Cohesion…..who’dda thunk it….All Blacks and Sarries. Certainly GRFC coaches talk about “leaders on the pitch” but is it a team performance that we see? If we look at what we would consider to be leaders, Slater, Cips, Heinz &c are we seeing a unit or several individuals? And how are they gelling with off field leaders? Certainly something isn’t right. And it’s less right this season than last with several players playing less well than last season.

Don’t get me wrong. I believe we now have a team that, on paper at least, has the potential to challenge for honours (with a little beefing up 1 to 3). I believe our best back row is world class. As is our best 2nd row (in my mind a fully fit Slater & Mostert). A back 3 of Marshall, Thorley & Rees-Zammit should be enough to put the fear of god into many teams. A half back pairing of Simpson & Cips with a centre pairing of any mix of Harris, 36, Atkinson & Trinder.

With our fitness levels where they are (thanks to Dan Tobin) fully fit I believe we can put a solid 15 on the pitch with a 6-2 mix on the bench (with a little beefing up 1 to 3) to keep a strong forward platform to feed the potentially devastating back attack.

But we need a Plan B and we need to get the Team Cohesion right. Do that and I think we can have what you see in the link below. And (forgive the crudeness) if that doesn’t give guys a bit of a hard on and make the ladies a little moist you’re watching the wrong game.