After the dust has settled and all those from over the Bridge have told us how this is Wales’ RWC year lets just cast the light of reality over the 6 Nations.
Wales won the 6 Nations and deservedly so. They did not win it anywhere close to convincingly and anywhere close to suggesting they will be playing NZ in the final of the RWC. They won it for two reasons. Firstly, England were arrogant. Secondly the Welsh defence.
Wales scored 10 tries in 5 games, a barren attack that is nowhere near good enough. To put that in context England scored two and half times more tries in winning just 3 games. That Wales only gave away 7 is the fact that saved them. They did not score a single bonus point. Strip them of the additional 3 bonus points for winning the Grand Slam and they sit on 20. If England had not been so arrogant last Saturday and finished off Scotland they would also have been on 20 and would have won the championship. That the RWC does not have the same bonus point structure as the 6 Nations should be a warning call to Gatland and his gallant band.
Out of the pool stages of the RWC you would expect the 8 top nations to make it through (although Scotland may struggle against the Cherry Blossoms in front of a partisan crowd. Surely that one is too close to call after Brighton in 2015).
There may be some surprises with the distinct possibility of Argentina joining the top table over France in Pool 3, 10th & 8th respectively. Though Pool 2 looks like a By for NZ and the Boks.
Wales will have no easy path to the knockouts and might expect to pick up some injuries against Georgia and Fiji currently ranked 12th & 9th; both ranked higher than Italy on 14th, it’s a tough pool.
In Gatland Wales have an old war horse who has proven his merit not only with the national team but also with the Lions. By the close of the RWC he’ll be 56 and will be leaving Wales as Coach but will the KO stages prove just too tough after he surely navigates them through the murky waters of Pool D?
Chances are Wales will top the pool and have to play France or Argentina in the Quarters. That almost certainly looks like leading to a semi against the Boks who will have had a much easier time of it.
That is where I expect Wales, and Gatland, to end their run, similarly to England who I expect will be outgunned by NZ.
winnyssite 