A One Trick Pony?

Exeter Chiefs have scored 18 tries this season in six games. An average of 3 per game. Last season they were joint try scoring leaders with 71. While it is probably unfair to call them a one trick pony, if you give away a penalty beyond kicking range you know what’s coming next with the Chiefs. Kick to to the corner, catch and drive. And why not. It’s effective. It works, as the stats show. They have pretty much perfected that move.

What the stats also show is that only one team have gone to Sandy Park and won since September 2014. In two years only the Sarries have beaten Chiefs at Sandy Park….Apart from us. It’s a tough place to go and play rugby. And when you’re carrying the level of injuries that have decimated your side as we are then you know it’s going to be a tough day at the office.

The key to any chance we had was to reduce the error count and that is what Gloucester achieved. Playing for 80 minutes helped as the final try on full time was forced into the corner giving Steenson too much of an angle to take the extras otherwise we could well have come away with a loss.

Again there were so many positives to Gloucester’s performance and leading 14-27 with the clock ticking down that you felt we might edge that elusive win. But Chiefs brought on fresh muscle and forced the errors that led to that inevitable catch and drive.

Gloucester seemingly have it all. Huge ball carrying behemoths in the shape of Morgan and Moriarty, big tacklers in the shape of Galarza and Hibbard, flying wings in Sharples and Halaifonua, wily centres in Twelvetrees (much improved recently) and Atkinson.

It’s true the set piece struggled in places without Afoa and against Parling. It’s also true that the game will never appear on anyone’s “My Favourite 1000 Rugby Games” DVD. It was workmanlike rather than spectacular but we came away with 2 points from Sandy Park which is something special all on it’s own. But it also means we are 10th and 8 clear points adrift of the top four.

Our next Premiership game is away to Saints and Franklin Gardens has never been a happy hunting ground for us. On the back of that we face the two run away premiership leaders, both of whom we are quite capable of beating on the day. It remains to be seen if the players are willing to believe that.

Armchair Warriors

A gulf is beginning to develop in the Aviva Premiership. After just 5 games Gloucester are 5 points adrift of the top 4, in 9th place. Not a huge margin you might say. But our next four Aviva games are against Chiefs, Saints, Wasps & Sarries. 3 of those games are away. The only home game is against  the run away leaders of the Prem so far. Wasps. Let’s be honest, the most ardent fan would struggle to take odds offered on any of those games.

It is possible, worryingly possible, that we might lose the next 4 Aviva games in a row. It is possible that Gloucester may go 9 Aviva games with 1 win…..and yet we can beat any one of those teams. We HAVE beaten each of those teams.

It has to be said we are carrying too many injuries. May, Thrush and Kalamafoni hit our depth. We’ve yet to see Hohneck, Denton, Symons or Matu’u. Paddy Mac seems up one week down the next and some of the kids have yet to make a mark.

One concern for me is rotation. How do we plan to go into matches against opposition such as Chiefs, Wasps or Sarries thinking we need to rest Marshall, Laidlaw, Moriarty or other key components. And how does our EPQ rating play?

Has Humphreys, to put it bluntly, f**ked up. Has St Q denied him the funds to build depth into the squad. We’ve seen the likes of Wasps seemingly push the limits of the salary cap and it’s paying dividends in terms of results (although home gate advantage still goes to Gloucester despite Ricoh’s capacity being twice that of Kingsholm. Average Ricoh gate 13,946, average Kingsholm 14,154). Suck it up David 😉

So here is the big question. If we cannot beat Falcons at home can we realistically expect to beat Chiefs, Saints or Sarries away, or Wasps at home? And if I, as a fan, am thinking that, what is going through the players minds? Do they, as a squad, believe they can go to Sandy Park, Franklin’s Gardens or Allianz Park and win? Do they believe they can beat Wasps at Kingsholm having won only 1 of our last 6 games at the “Fortress”? It has to be said, I have brought a Sandy Park ticket hoping I’m wrong.

We are now in the 3rd year of the rebuild. New players. Key signings. High profile coaches and an “experienced” DoR. The first year all was excused, everything was new. The 2nd season was explained that there was the World Cup and some bedding in on a long season…..This season there are no excuses. And only 1 win from 5 games.

At the end of this year, if we do not see significant gains, I expect an exodus. On the playing side, Moriarty, Morgan, Thrush, Afoa, Hibbard, Hook, Kvesik, Kalamafoni. On the coaching front, tragically, Fisher, who will be hunted around the globe. Other teams will pick over the bones of what is left. Humphreys may find something but his cohorts, Bell & Tobin, will have to cling on, although I think they have both performed well.

So just 5 points adrift from the top four, nothing much, but….a gulf. because, to bridge those 5 points we have to win games….and the top four have to lose games….and that needs to happen in the next four games because we are then talking about almost half the season gone. And if we’re not up around the mark by then, we never will be.

But I, like every Shed Head, am an Armchair Warrior. If I had half a clue I would be coaching, and training and a DoR.

And I’m not.