Tough Calls Ahead!

As we head into February my prediction of being top 4 is strangely prescient. Strangely because I predicted something slightly different; that we would struggle initially before coming good around January/February time.

And here we are having had a cracking opening and now a bit of a struggle. But top 4 we are, and top 4 we have earned. We deserve to be there.

We got there on the back of  some hard working youngsters determined to stake a claim during a period of injuries; Polledri, Clarke & Ackermann in the back row have proven to be an awesome combination with Ludlow having to consistently hit the top of the Aviva tackle count to maintain his place in the squad.

News that Moriarty was definitely off to the regions was met with almost equanimity at Castle Grim as we kept lapping up the yards carried by a young Bok.

And, let’s be honest, Morgan’s return from injury has generally led to calls that he’s no longer the force he once was, that Clarke looks sharper, keener and fitter. And he lost none of that commentary in his captaincy during a generally lacklustre performance versus Ospreys.

And it has to be said there is not a man in The Shed that was surprised to see Conor O’Shea at Palma.

Thorley has surely nailed down a starting spot in Charlie’s absence. Hudson must be giving Johan selection problems with Marshall coming back and Woodward enjoying his game time.

Halaifonua continues to be the Brick Wall in our defense and can open their’s like a tin opener on his day (is it me or does he not seem to have aged a day since he joined us?).

The front five, for me, is an easier choice with Rapava-Ruskin, Hanson, Balmain, Savage & Slater being my first choice every time (I love Afoa but what Balmain did to Marler secures the spot for me).

The 9, 10, 12 has, for me, been Heinz, Burns, 36. (BV for me isn’t yet a 60/80 minute man but he soon will be).  I think the wins over Falcons & Sarries show that 36 is better at 12.

So here it is, tough calls ahead. Our opening unstoppable run seemed to be almost as a result of the injuries. We had no options, we had to play the teams we selected. Now Johan has wider selection options things have just gone a teeny bit pear shaped.

The new(ish) phrase is “cohesion” and the team had it of course. They were playing regularly together. But now we have rotation and we have this mid-season stutter.

There are still plenty of games ahead of us with the AW, ERCC and Prem, a rare opportunity for a bite at all 3 perhaps. So rotation must be a factor. But we are told the senior squad will take another hit next season as StQ keeps trying to convince us he’s spending “to within 10p of the cap”. At the moment, with news of those leaving far outnumbering those joining our senior squad will number around 33 if there are no more new signings. We know Bokkies come cheap but if we flood the squad then what happens to the EQP? StQ can’t have it both ways.

With 9 games left in the Prem, looking at the fixtures, I think we’re through the tougher half of the season. The only two games that should give us a genuine test of our mettle are away at Sandy Park and The Allianz, but I think we have sufficient steel to win those also. I just think we need to now say we have the foundations of a strong team, let’s have faith in them.

The greatest risk any Shed Head can take is naming their personal starting line up. It opens them up to a world of debate and mockery but, for the  record my starting 15 then:

15 Marshall 14 Sharples 13 Trinder 12 Twelvetrees 11 Thorley 10 Burns 9 Heinz

1 Rapava-Ruskin 2 Hanson 3 Balmain 4 Savage 5 Slater 6 Ackermann 7 Ludlow 8 Clarke

 

 

A Hard Won Fourth!

Gloucester RFC are 4th in the Aviva Premiership. No one predicted that at the start of the season, least of all me. I believed we would start climbing the table around February time and would hopefully make top 4 by season end leaving us a chance to take the title in the play offs. I’m a happy bunny 😉

There are, however, serious concerns. Chief among them has to be the line out. This set piece is an essential attacking component of any Premiership team. Any penalty giving the opportunity for a skilled 10 to kick to the 5 meter line for a devastating forward 8 to develop a rolling maul with peel offs and maybe a quick feed to an overlap for a neat little converted try…..and 7 points thank you very much. And let’s be honest, Billy Burns has been devastating with the kick to touch or winger this season 😉

But our line out has been less than devastating. Less than 83% success rate. How can we rely on a devastating attack set piece if almost 1 in 5 of our line outs are won by the opposition? Hardly a fearsome part of our game plan.

Of our first 12 games the following stats for line out won are in regard to the starting No2.

RH 78.5

MM 81.25

JH 89.47

Hibbsy has earned his reputation at Glawster. We all love him. This blond, tattooed, behemoth that seemingly lays his life on the line every time he dons the shirt. I love the guy as much as the next Shed Head. But the Stats speak for themselves. Hanson is way out front. He has earned his starting position.

But here’s the thing. I was once told that Hibbsy couldn’t stand being 2nd best. Perhaps he’s matured. Moving to NGD is, perhaps, a wonderful thing. Our Richard retains pretensions about the Welsh squad. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll make that 3rd choice hooker. When he first joined Gloucester I was critical. I said he was pedestrian, arrogant. I say now, Richard Hibbard is a changed man. His time at Gloucester changed him. He has slimmed down, become more determined. If I was Gatland I would want him in my squad more for what he brings to the squad than his chance of playing on the day. Hibbsy has always been a warrior but he has now become a team player and if I was Gatland I would want him on my side.

But we seriously need consistency. Our line out is currently running at 82% with all No2s, not nearly good enough. Looking at the stats; RH & MM do need to be replaced.

Our challenge this season also includes that we have given away an average of 10 penalties a game. Obviously this includes scrum penalties but it’s still way too many. Having said this, our worst result of the seasons, the 57-10 result at the AJ Bell included our best penalty result of just 4 penalties!! Work that one out. Our worst results are 17 against Tigers, 13 against Quins, 12 against Sarries. We cannot afford that sort of giveaway.

12 games and 8 games won. Nice. But other stats don’t favour us an we need to redouble our efforts. -23 points diff! a 1 try positive diff. Just 5 BPs out of a potential 12 (if we had won all 12 games). Last season we had 14 BPs (but ended up 9th because we only won 7 out of 22.

I both love stats and hate stats. They can tell you all you need to know and nothing about what you need to know. Such is life.

But I still have £20 on Glaws to win the trophy;-)