Statistics don’t lie, but you can pretty much make them say whatever you want them to say and my stats prove we should be topping the league by a margin having won 7 and drawn 1 in our 8 league encounters this season. So why does the table not reflect this? In a single word, Penalties.
There has been plenty of chat in the forums about our performance in various areas of the field & game. We’re all loving some of the rugby we’re playing; sexy, sublime & splendid. When it works by crikey it works to wondrous effect, leaves oppositions sprawling as players “run the length of the Cotswolds” and puts opposition players on their backsides. It is often unwise for asthmatics to visit The ‘Holm as it leaves us all breathless.
But there are those aspects that give us all cause for concern, such as the line out, especially the long throws that miss 9 times out of 10, the unforced errors and the missed kicks.
Probably the most talked about area of concern this year, though, has been the penalty count, so I thought I’d have a gander through the stats to see if it’s as worrying as it might be…….And by golly it really is!!
I’m just working on the Gallagher Premiership games for this evaluation. Of the 8 games we’ve played we’ve given away 87 penalties, just shy of 11 per game. From those penalties there have been 25 kicks at goal converted for a total of 75 points. But with a points difference of +42 surely this is irrelevant isn’t it? We’re sailing high in 3rd and all is good with the world.
Well, do you recall what I said in the opening paragraph, we should be No1 having lost no games? We lost to Tigers 16-13, Sarries 12-21, Quins 23-19 and Saints 33-26. Tigers, Sarries & Quins all converted 3 penalty kicks at the cost of 9 points per game and Saints converted 4 at the cost of 12. I don’t have to point out that the games against Tigers, Saints & Quins would have become wins and the loss against Sarries a draw and we would have an additional 11 points in our pocket putting us 5 points clear of Chiefs.
But surely this is balanced by penalties in favour of us, not that it helps as any points lost are points lost……if you get my point. And no, anyway. We’ve been awarded 76 penalties but only converted 8 of those into point scoring kicks so a net loss of 51 in any event. But as I say scoring points doesn’t help when you’re losing so many in the first instance.
I think the reason for my frustration in this area has to do with our overall defence. We are still the most miserly team in the league having shipped just 9 tries. The next nearest are Sarries & Sharks on 11 each while the Exiles have shipped more than 3 times that number. Giving away so many points in silly penalties when we are so miserly in defence is heartbreaking.
But does it really matter? Well, let me put it this way, if we hadn’t given away just 8% of the penalties we have done we would now be on 32 points and top of the table. “Fine Margins” we say and fine margins it certainly is.
winnyssite 