Win predicted, win delivered.

Gloucester director of rugby David Humphreys: “I was delighted to come somewhere as tough as this and get a win. “People forget we’ve 12 players unavailable”….He said as Heinz & Hook were left on the bench…..to great effect it must be said!

Sale Sharks have lost twice at home in the Premiership since the start of last season….both times to Gloucester.

Bizarrely, for some reason, I never had any, or perhaps many, doubts about this game. So many aspects of top rugby have been seen from Gloucester in recent weeks. The defence against Glasgow. The Attack against Tigers. Some self-assurance against Warriors ….eventually some of it had to come together, and on Friday night it did.

It might be argued that missing 7 points from the tee didn’t help Sharks. At 56 minutes they might have been 20-17 ahead. But they weren’t.

There were some errors, but fewer than Sharks. Maybe we could have been a little sharper in one or two areas. Both Hibbsy & DD missed a throw. Possibly Marshall and Purdy could have paused a moment before their tackle and prevented a try. Kvesic seemed to pause a second around the 29th minute and make the right decision…..it could also have gone wrong of course…..there’s that hindsight again.

Around 30 minutes Sharks had 28% in our 22 and we had 2% in theirs….we made it count and they didn’t. Our response to their line-outs on the 53rd and 55th were very different with very different results.

But here’s the thing. At all times, despite any errors, Gloucester seemed to know what they were about, and they set about completing the task. All areas were addressed. Defence, attack, set piece. All handled competently. No panic. No flair where it was too risky. Yes, sometimes the defence seemed a tad scrappy, but it defended.

It has to be said, I thought Tempest kept the game ticking over but with less than 6,000 at the AJ Bell it wasn’t a fraught atmosphere.

At the end of the 14-15 season I said we needed a guaranteed kicker. Burns, on his way to Tigers, wasn’t the man for the job in any case. In came Laidlaw and once again he proved his worth with 3 penalties late in the 2nd 40 to further demoralise Sharks. But let’s not underestimate Rowan, a surprising replacement in lieu of Ludlow who got a start for Moriarty. It goes to show the depth of the back row with Kvesic, Moriarty, Kalamofoni, Rowan, Ludlow as well as Evans.

Gloucester looked assured. They looked calm. There was no panic. They were clinical. And they have two home games on the bounce to embed that confidence. The game against Falcons is an interesting one. They struggled to a win over Sale at home, were trounced by Bath and narrowly avoided a win at home to Tigers. They have leaked 11 tries to our 10 but have only scored 3 to our 8. On paper they are ours for the taking….which has to make any Gloucester fan nervous. We would probably be more confident of taking on Barff who sit atop the Prem with 3 from 3 and +72 point difference such has been our bizarre performance in recent months.

The win lifts us to 5th. In my last blog I suggested Atkinson to start over Twelvetrees, or maybe even Thorley replacing Twelvetrees altogether. No Thorley, but 36 on the bench.

I said “Hook seems to have lost the ability to read the game” and we didn’t see him.

I said  “It is time for the game makers to step up. We need to play open, attacking rugby when and where we can and that cannot be for 80 minutes. So we need the game makers to take the chances that come while the defence offers a continuous closed door policy” and that’s what Laidlaw & Burns pulled off.

I said “I shall be intrigued to see the starting 12, 13 combo tomorrow. Twelvetrees has played some good rugby but it seems for every decent thing he does he makes an unforced, and costly, error.”  And Billy was on the bench.

There was enough of the sublime, sexy rugby to win us the game but at the right times. The Burns off-load to Afoa, the Marshall chip for Sharples……

I think this was our best overall 80 minutes since Wasps last March. And I think the result was just as important.

Now we need NOT to fuck up the next four Aviva Prem games in response to this win.

 

Losing against 14?

Last season Warriors won 7 games from 22. 2 were against Falcons and 1 against Irish. 11th and 12th respectively. They won 4 games against teams higher placed than them at the end of the season. They lost 15 games. 6 at home.

If you have ambitions of a top 6, let alone a top 4, place then you expect to beat Warriors away…..if Warriors are down to 14 men for almost 30 minutes, you expect it to be convincing. BP territory.

Intriguingly, at the start of the season David Humphreys was talking about a change of mentality at Gloucester. He said we were now aiming to win the league. His most recent interview, however, had changed to saying a top 4 place was a reasonable target. That is a seismic shift in mentality in a very short space of time.

Throwing away a 31 point lead in 35 minutes in a home game was probably the worst start to the season Gloucester could hope for. A loss not helped by the YC for a key forward in Matt Kvesic.

It could be argued then, that Warriors being penalised by a RC with 30 minutes left at 15-9 had pretty much committed suicide……not even a little bit.

It has been argued that a YC would benefit the other team by around 7 points during the 10 minutes. Clearly it depends on the strength of the opposition. Sarries getting a YC against Irish wouldn’t even level the field let alone give Irish any sort of advantage. Falcons against Warriors would have an impact you would think. Certainly, if Warriors lost a player for 10 minutes you would hope that Gloucester would have a significant advantage during that period of play.

In reality an average turnaround during a YC is around 3.5 points in the Aviva Prem. So with 30 minutes on the clock you would hope that Gloucester would put at least 10 points on Warriors who, at 15-9 up, would succumb to the inevitable pressure.

The fact is, in our first two games of the season we have conceded 8 tries, an average of 4 per game. Last season, in the Prem, it was a reasonably miserly 2 per game. And yet it has to be said that we are playing some of our best rugby. Our injury list is, scarily for the start of the season, growing fast. Thrush, Kalamafoni, May, Trinder……Galarza and Moriarty on return to play protocols and still no cover for Marshall who was less spectacular against Warriors than against Tigers.

I cannot find a season that we failed to win at least one of our first 3 games.

So we go up to Sale for our third Friday night fixture in a row. With storms and rain forecast for Thursday but clearing up on Friday the 3G pitch should allow expansive play. The Forwards need to dominate the scrum and keep possession in the Line Out. Obvious? Areas where key errors were made against Tigers & Warriors. While it is entertaining to see the sublime, fast pace rugby we saw spells of in the opening two games there is little point in scoring 4 tries if the opposition are allowed to score 5 through a leaky defence. It is time for the game makers to step up. We need to play open, attacking rugby when and where we can and that cannot be for 80 minutes. So we need the game makers to take the chances that come while the defence offers a continuous closed door policy.

I shall be intrigued to see the starting 12, 13 combo tomorrow. Twelvetrees has played some good rugby but it seems for every decent thing he does he makes an unforced, and costly, error. Hook seems to have lost the ability to read the game. Scott seems to do no wrong. With Trinder injured our Centres are thin on the Ground but I notice Thorley didn’t get a United game on Monday. Perhaps Scott & Atkinson to start with Thorley on the bench?

If we fail to win  three on the bounce can we argue after just three rounds that a top four place is not a realistic proposition. With Wasps, Bath & Sarries expecting wins, a loss from us would potentially mean being 10 points adrift after just 3 games.  

 

Dire straights?

Gloucester have never failed to win one of their opening first three games in the professional era…..and yet that is what we are staring at.

The top four Aviva Prem teams have scored 30 tries between them. The bottom 8 just 31.

The bottom 7 teams have had 50 tries scored against them. The top 5 teams have had 11 scored against them, an average of 7.2 versus 2.2….although Gloucester fair not too badly in those stats.

Gloucester visit the AJ Bell with, it must be said, trepidation in their hearts. Their record there is not brilliant although they are the only team to have beaten Sharks at home last season.

Let’s be honest. The opening games against Tigers and Warriors were all for the taking by Gloucester. Humphreys was all about closing out games after losing 6 games where Gloucester led in the last 10 minutes last season. But we didn’t win  either game. We should have. But we didn’t.

And we visit Manchester not expecting a win to be honest. And if we don’t win there we go into a game against Falcons without a win….and then bounce into 3 Prem games against Bath, Chiefs & Saints.

And, to be brutally honest…if we’re not beating Warriors, Tigers (when were 24 points up) and we fail to beat Sharks…….

And yet, bizarrely, everyone is talking about the wonderful, sublime, sexy and challenging rugby Gloucester are playing.

So what do we do? Carry on playing the sublime, sexy rugby or…….?

I know one thing, I wouldn’t be in Fisher’s shoes for all the tea in China.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well That Didn’t Go As Planned!

A Sublime, sexy and enthralling first forty overwhelmed by 35 minutes of despair!

I await the reports and stats with fear and trepidation. Where did it all go so wrong?

A seemingly fearless, exciting and thrilling Gloucester could do no wrong for 45 minutes at Kingsholm on Friday night. The Shed was in full voice as the boys in Cherry & White could, it seems, dance around with impugnity. The Tigers had been bitten……31-7, 24 points adrift after 45 minutes. Gloucester had the last say in the first half and the first say in the second….ominous and promising stuff.

Figures were backing up what might be a decisive opening 80 minutes of Aviva Premiership rugby. Matt Scott made two tries following his 1st in a Cherry & White shirt against Warriors the week before. Making 39 meters with 12 carries and  8 tackles his MoM is well deserved but takes the shine off Tom Marshall who may have an equal claim with 92 meters (more than twice the number of meters of anyone on the pitch except Tiger’s Veainu with 70 & Purdy 76) and 18 carries. Indeed, with Pietersen to pin down Marshall was, for me, MoM.

The Tigers are not known for giving up….indeed, it is Gloucester that have that reputation having lost 6 matches last season in which they were leading at the 70th minute……This was another game to go that way.

The loss of a decent Flanker at a crucial moment might be seen as the key. The fact that Gloucester sent Rowan on to replace Kvesic after the 10 minutes is probably not significant. More significant is that he started at 7 and not 6 which was comfortably filled with the Welsh demon Moriarty. Has Matt had his chance? It seems that Jones has said his piece without Kvesic making the appropriate response. His failure to be included in the senior England EPS is statement enough after so many opportunities.

The bench wasn’t filled with EPQ bonus names. Each was qualified to be there on merit from past performance……although Rowan might feel aggrieved not to have started. Evans has proved himself. Paddy Mac might need to drop a pound or two. DJ knows his place, as does DD (looking forward to Matu’u)   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFsXflfeVkc

Latta, Heinz & Hook completed the replacements, each worthy enough.

Purdy did nothing to disrespect his start and would seriously challenge May with 76 meters (and a surprisingly low 3 tackles…..it seemed he made more!) With only a 5 kilo advantage over May he seems beefier. He runs straight and makes the hits, Jonny, for me, just seems to take the less direct route too often.

It’s incredibly difficult for a man of advancing years to watch this wonderful game from The Shed. As a kid I was brought up on the amateur game. A very different game to that which is played now in the professional era. Of course the Ref is now and always has been God on the pitch, and rightly so. But from The Shed I can see the game played out on the pitch but also on the big screen. I can see a forward pass that goes unseen by the Ref……when Gloucester benefit AND when Tigers do also 😉 So I may castigate Wayne Barnes for failing to see Tigers forward pass that led to Tuilagi’s try but I’m certainly not going to mention anything detrimental to Gloucester…..and nor are several thousand other Shed Heads.

The set piece was solid enough. Even Hibbsy made one or two accurate long range efforts in the line out. 36 made 8 tackles but too many unforced errors….again! The scrum was solid…..certainly until the 50th. Savage & Galarza, with 13 tackles each worked hard enough and Thrushy will have to earn his place when he’s fit.

Laidlaw, as usual, was Gloucester’s key component and made almost 30% of all passes  during the whole game, such was his game management.

But as Pete Caffrey, my Welsh PE teacher, taught me, you can’t score without the ball. Gloucester showed that on Friday night with sublime, sexy and enthralling rugby. The coaches and players will pick the bones over the last 35 minutes of that game but by crikey I hope they leave the first 45 alone.